Summer Warmth Likely Across the South, Uncertainty about Magnitude and Northward Extent of Above-Normal Temperatures
Andover, MA, March 21, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the approaching period (April-June) to average lower than normal across the Nordic regions and most of the UK, with higher-than-normal temperatures across most of the mainland.
“As we transition from the winter pattern towards the summer pattern, the impact of the persistently warm North Atlantic Ocean becomes more of a factor,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “This means that above-normal temperatures will slowly become more widespread than they have been during the recent cold winter. Over the next few weeks, below-normal temperatures will be confined to northern sections of Europe, while above-normal temperatures will become commonplace in the South.”
“As we head into summer, the primary uncertainty is the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),” Dr. Crawford added. “If the NAO remains in its negative phase, as it has for most of the last three years, the most significant summer heat will be limited to the southern half of Europe. However, if the more recent trend towards positive NAO values persists, the summer heat will be more widespread and more intense. Right now, we feel that the former scenario is more likely, with a summer somewhat similar to 2008. Our first official summer forecast will be released on 25 April.”
In April, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Nordic Region* – Cooler than normal
UK* – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland* – Cooler than normal
Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
In May, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Poland
Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal
In June, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Cooler than normal
UK – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook for the May-July period on 25 April.
*To view the map defining WSI’s European regions, click here.
About Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.
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