WSI: Moderate Heat to Build Across the Northern US During Second Half of Summer

WSI and ESAI Expect US Energy Usage during July-September Period to Increase 7-8% Year-Over-Year


Andover, MA, June 22, 2010 — WSI expects the upcoming period (July-September) to average warmer than normal across most of the US, with the exception of parts of the central and northern Plains. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

“A new La Nina event continues to rapidly evolve as we head deeper into summer. This will favor more heat across the northern US as the summer progresses,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “In the Atlantic, record warm ocean temperatures also favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across a majority of the US. On the other hand, near-record soil moisture levels across parts of the central and northern Plains, along with a lack of any significant drought conditions in the US, will temper the overall magnitude of the heat. By early July, we expect heat to spread across most of the western US and to persist across the Southeast, while relatively cooler temperatures persist across the north-central and northeastern US. By August and September, we expect the heat to become more widespread across the northern US. For the July-September period as a whole, we are forecasting 836 population-weighted cooling degree days, 7-8% more than last year and about 10% more than the 1971-2000 mean.”

In July, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:

Northeast – Cooler than normal
Southeast – Warmer than normal
N Central – Cooler than normal
S Central – Warmer than normal
Northwest – Warmer than normal
Southwest – Warmer than normal

According to Paul Flemming, Director of Power & Gas at ESAI, “In July, WSI is forecasting cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast but warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the western and southern regions. Gas demand from the power sector for cooling will likely be strong in all regions except for the Northeast and North Central areas.” According to Flemming, “Warmer expectations in the Southwest, the Rockies and Texas for July indicates higher probabilities of heat events which would drive high demand for both gas and power in these regions.”

In August, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Northeast – Warmer than normal
Southeast – Cooler than normal
N Central – Near normal
S Central – Near normal
Northwest – Warmer than normal
Southwest – Warmer than normal

“In August, WSI is forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures across the northern U.S. and the Northeast with cooler temperatures in parts of the Midwest and Southeast. Gas demand for cooling should be weaker than normal in the Gulf Coast regions but could be offset by higher demand in the Northeast. We would expect power prices in the Northeast markets to be volatile in August given the warmer-than-normal temperature projections,” noted Flemming.

In September, WSI forecasts:

Northeast – Warmer than normal
Southeast – Cooler than normal
N Central – Warmer than normal
S Central – Warmer than normal
Northwest – Warmer than normal
Southwest – Warmer than normal

“In September, WSI is forecasting much warmer-than-normal temperatures across the northern U.S. and the Northeast with cooler temperatures in the Southeast.” According to Flemming, “gas demand for cooling should be strong in the Northeast and Midwest and overall demand should be strong during September relative to normal conditions. Power prices in the Northeast markets could continue to be volatile in September due to the high chance of late summer heat events.”

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook (for the August-October period) on July 20.

About WSI

WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.

 

About ESAI

Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.

Contacts:
Linda Maynard                                         Tommy Sutro
WSI                                                             ESAI, Energy Security Analysis, Inc.
(978) 983-6715                                        (781) 245-2036
lmaynard@wsi.com                                tsutro@esai.com


Editorial Contact:
Barbara Rudolph
Rudolph Communications, LLC
(781) 229-1811
bjr@rudolphcommunications.com