Lack of North Atlantic “Blocking” Will Likely Result in Cool Spring Across South, Warm Spring North
Andover, MA, February 20, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (March-May) to average lower than normal across the UK and most of southern mainland Europe, with above-normal temperatures common across northern mainland Europe and most of the Nordic region.
“The bitterly cold regime over much of Europe is coming to an end as we head into late February. Recent long-range model solutions, along with the sub-seasonal drivers such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), suggest that the large-scale pattern will be more conducive for warmer weather heading into March,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The exception will be in parts of eastern and southeastern Europe, where recent excessive snowfall will likely delay the transition towards warmer temperatures until later in the spring. Further, there are no indications that any prolonged periods of North Atlantic blocking, or negative NAO, should be expected anytime soon. For the spring season, this implies a general pattern of above-normal temperatures in northern regions and below-normal temperatures across the South. It also implies that wetter and windier conditions should return to the northern hydrological/wind generation regions, with drier and less windy conditions at more southern latitudes.”
In March, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Colder than normal
In April, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern Norway/Sweden
UK – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Cooler than normal
Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal
In May, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern Norway
UK – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southeastern Europe
WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 19 March.
*To view the map defining WSI’s European regions, click here.
About Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.
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