Statistical and Dynamical Model Forecasts Reflect Cooler North Atlantic Temperatures than Originally Expected
ANDOVER, Mass. (July 25, 2013) — Weather Services International (WSI) has reduced their tropical season forecast numbers slightly, but still expects the remainder of the tropical season to be active, with 13 more named storms, eight hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes expected, bringing the final seasonal totals to 16/8/3. This compares to the previous forecast of 16/9/4, the 1950-2012 normals of 12/7/3 and the more recent “active period” (1995-2012) normals of 15/8/4.
According to WSI’s chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford:
“North Atlantic temperatures have not warmed as fast as expected this summer, and the most recent runs of our statistical and dynamical models reflect this with lower forecast numbers going forward. The main drivers of tropical activity this year are simply not that remarkable relative to recent years, so a further reduction to the forecast numbers is warranted. There is still a slight chance that a new El Nino event will develop during the next couple of months, which would lower expectations further, but we do not currently see that possibility being much of a factor.”
“Based upon the most recent guidance, we’ve reduced our forecast for hurricanes from nine to eight, and our forecast for major hurricanes from four to three, but have left the numbers for named storms (16, or 13 more going forward, since we’ve already had three) as is. We may have to reduce these numbers even further in our August update if current trends persist.”
WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next tropical update on August 22.
About WSI Corporation
WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.