Active Early Season Should Give Way to Slow Finish as Rapidly Emerging El Nino Event Takes Control
Andover, MA, June 27, 2012 — In its updated tropical forecast for 2012, WSI (Weather Services International) increased the 2012 forecast to 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). These numbers are slightly higher than the previous forecast of 11/6/2, and are slightly lower than both the adjusted long-term (1950-2011) averages of 12 named storms/7 hurricanes/3 intense hurricanes and averages from the more active recent period (1995-2011) of 15/8/4.
“Although we are off to a fast start in 2012, we feel that the season will tail off more quickly than usual in September and October, as a significant El Nino event continues to mature,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “However, the combination of a fast start and the recent increase in North Atlantic surface temperature anomalies over the last month dictate that we increase our forecast numbers a bit. Further, while the El Nino is rapidly developing, the atmospheric pattern is lagging a bit and does not yet have an El Nino “look”. We expect the atmosphere to respond to El Nino over the next couple months, with increasingly unfavorable conditions for tropical development as the season wears on.”
Crawford also indicated there was no particularly strong landfall signal for 2012 at this point. “After a three-year respite for the US coastline, Hurricane Irene moved ashore along the East Coast during late August 2011. Irene was a wake-up call after a historically unusual lull in hurricane landfalls along the US coast. For 2012, our landfall model depicts slightly below-normal probabilities of landfall from Florida and up the East Coast, with slightly above-normal probabilities in the Gulf.”
Energy traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include the final official summer forecast, will be issued on June 26. The next update for the 2012 tropical season will be released on July 25.
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, insurance, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
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