Low Threat of El Nino Impacts Downgrade For Major Hurricane Outlook
ANDOVER, Mass. (June 27, 2013) — Weather Services International (WSI) expects another active tropical season this year, with 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes expected (16/9/4). This compares to the previous forecast of 16/9/5, the 1950-2012 normals of 12/7/3 and the more recent “active period” (1995-2012) normals of 15/8/4.
According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford:
“The trend towards warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1995 has resulted in a more active tropical period relative to what occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. The main drivers of tropical activity this year are not particularly remarkable, and suggest a rather typical season of the current active era. North Atlantic temperatures are warm compared to long-term normals, but are typical of those observed over the active period of the last 20 years. There are no indications that a particularly strong El Nino or La Nina event (which would modify the background wind shear patterns towards fewer or greater number of storms, respectively) will be present either. Our statistical and dynamical models do suggest a slightly quieter season than they did last month, however, as ocean temperatures have cooled slightly and the chances for El Nino development, though still small, have increased a bit.”
“Based upon the most recent guidance, we’ve reduced our forecast for major hurricanes from five to four, but have tentatively left the numbers for named storms (16) and hurricanes (nine) as is. We may have to trim those numbers a bit in our July update if current trends persist.”
WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next tropical update on July 25.
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WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.