North Atlantic Oscillation to Remain Quiet into March
Andover, MA, February 21, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the approaching period (March-May) to average lower than normal across the Nordic regions and mainland Europe, with slightly above-normal temperatures confined to the UK.
“After the recent two-month stretch of persistently negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ended in January, a more seasonable pattern settled in across Europe until the cold returned with a vengeance across during the last couple of weeks across the Nordic regions and eastern Europe,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The UK has been caught in the middle between the persistent cold Scandinavian ridging and the stormy, warmer cyclonic flow in the eastern Atlantic, resulting in near to slightly above-normal temperatures there.”
“As we progress into March, this pattern of cold weather in eastern European sections and milder weather across western sections will continue, at least until another significant pulse of the less predictable subseasonal signals (Madden-Julian Oscillation) develops, after which the UK is at greater risk for more persistent cold,” Dr. Crawford added. “For Europe as a whole, however, we continue to expect below-normal temperatures to be more prevalent than above-normal temperatures through most of the spring.”
In March, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Nordic Region* – Colder than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Colder than normal, except northern France
Southern Mainland* – Colder than normal, except southern France and Iberia
In April, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Nordic Region – Colder than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except Southeast
In May, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern Sweden/Finland
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal, except Benelux/northern France
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal
WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook for the April-June period on 21 March.
*To view the map defining WSI’s European regions, click here.
About Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
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