Relatively Warm Tropical Atlantic Temperatures and Lack of El Nino Still Suggest Tropics Will Heat Up During the Remaining Two-Thirds of Season
ANDOVER, Mass. (August 22, 2013) — Weather Services International (WSI) has made another minor reduction to the seasonal tropical forecast, and now expects a total of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes, a reduction from the totals from the July forecast of 16/8/3. This compares to the 1950-2012 normals of 12/7/3 and the more recent “active period” (1995-2012) normals of 15/8/4.
According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford:
“Although it has seemed like a relatively slow season so far, it is important to remember that 70% of all named storms and 80% of all hurricanes in the past 10 years have occurred after August 15, so the heart of the season is still on the way. North Atlantic temperatures are still relatively warm, and the chances of an El Nino event (which would act to stifle tropical development) continue to drop, so we do still expect a moderately active season. Our analysis suggests that the odds of a “hyperactive” season like 2005 and 2010 are quite low at this point, but that a season comparable to many seasons in the recent active-period era (since 1995) is still likely.”
“Based upon the most recent guidance from our statistical and dynamical models, along with supportin analysis, we’ve reduced our forecast for total named storms from 16 to 15, and have not changed our forecast numbers for hurricanes (eight) and intense hurricanes (three).”
WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its final tropical update on September 26.
About WSI Corporation
WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.