Weather Authority Forecasts an “Active-Normal” Season with Threat of Multiple Landfalls; East Coast Under Greatest Threat
ANDOVER, Mass. (May 23, 2013) — Weather Services International (WSI) continues to expect another active tropical season this year, with 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes expected (16/9/5). This compares to the 1950-2012 normals of 12/7/3 and the more recent “active period” (1995-2012) normals of 15/8/4. These numbers have not changed relative to our April release.
According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford:
“In general, there has been very little change to the outlook for the upcoming tropical season since our April release. Warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are still in place, suggesting another active Atlantic tropical season is in store. We are more confident that there will not be a significant El Nino event this summer, which will also result in a favorable environment for tropical development. Our proprietary statistical models and the various dynamical all indicate a season typical of those in the recent active period that began in 1995.”
“Our forecast still calls for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes. As always, how many storms will make landfall and where they do so is a much more difficult question. Most seasons (80%) have at least one hurricane landfall along the US coast, and most landfalls occur along the Gulf Coast and in Florida. Landfalls in the Northeast are relatively rare, however, occurring on average in just one of every four seasons. However, recent trends in steering currents during the tropical season suggest at least a slightly increased threat of storms along the East Coast again this year and a reduced threat, relative to normal, in the Gulf.”
WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next tropical update on June 27.
WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.