Lack of Instability Trumps Other More Favorable Factors
ANDOVER, Mass. (September 26, 2013) — Weather Services International (WSI) has made a significant reduction to the seasonal tropical forecast, and now expects a total of 15 named storms, five hurricanes, and one intense hurricane, a sharp decrease from the totals from the August forecast of 15/8/3. This compares to the 1950-2012 normals of 12/7/3 and the more recent “active period” (1995-2012) normals of 15/8/4.
According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford:
“With only 30% of the season to go, 2013 has not been particularly memorable so far. Of the nine named storms so far, only two have reached weak hurricane status. Clearly the more bullish preseason outlooks have not panned out this year, even with relatively warm tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a lack of an El Nino event. The lack of instability due to warmer temperatures aloft has likely been one of the reasons for the quiet season. For the remainder of the season, we are forecasting six more named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Clearly, this may still be too aggressive unless the fundamental background state changes significantly. We hope to learn from this outlier season heading into 2014.”
WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. This is the last tropical update of the season. WSI will issue its first tropical outlook for 2014 on April 24.
About WSI Corporation
WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.