Weather Authority's Tropical Forecast Continues to Call for a Relatively Quiet Season
Andover, MA - June 23, 2009 — WSI Corporation’s updated 2009 hurricane season forecast continues to call for 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
These forecast numbers are the same as the previous WSI forecasts issued in April and May due to a continuation of relatively cool tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a trend towards El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. The 2009 forecast numbers are quite close to the long-term (1950-2008) average of 9.8 named storms, 6.0 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes, but are significantly lower than the numbers from the relatively active seasons of the past 15 years.
The 2009 WSI tropical forecast comes on the heels of a very successful 2008 forecast. The WSI December forecast values of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes were slightly smaller than the final observed 2008 values of 16/8/5. The subsequent updates improved the forecast further, as the April 2008 updated forecast values of 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes were the most accurate amongst the publicly-available forecasts issued last spring.
“Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are cooler, relative to normal, than at any time since 1994," said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “Further, the new El Nino event continues to strengthen, and the recent patterns of tropical Pacific thunderstorm development have already responded to El Nino. This has resulted in an unfavorable wind shear environment across the tropical Pacific. This early emergence of this enhanced wind shear along with the relatively cool tropical Atlantic temperatures will almost certainly result in a less-active season then last year, and could potentially result in an unusually quiet season. While we have persisted our forecast numbers in response to the latest information, any future changes to our forecast are more likely to be towards smaller numbers than larger numbers.”
Energy and agricultural traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next full seasonal forecast package, which will include forecasts for late-summer and early-fall temperatures in both the US and Europe, will be issued on July 21. The next update on the 2009 hurricane season will be issued on July 20.
About WSI Corporation
WSI is the most trusted source of weather information across the globe. Top insurance, risk management companies and financial institutions, worldwide, trust WSI to supply them with easy-to-use, timely and expert weather guidance to help anticipate market volatility, mitigate risk and make critical decisions with confidence. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts, with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. For more information, please visit us on the web at www.wsi.com or call us at 877.WSI.CORP or +220.127.116.1100.