Emerging El Nino Impact Creates Unfavorable Environment for Development
Andover, MA, September 26, 2012 — In its final update to the tropical forecast for 2012, WSI (Weather Services International) increased the 2012 forecast to 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This represents an additional 3 named storms and 1 hurricane during the final third of the season. The final forecast numbers are higher than the adjusted long-term (1950-2011) averages of 12 named storms/7 hurricanes/3 intense hurricanes and fairly close to the averages from the more active recent period (1995-2011) of 15/8/4.
“The first two-thirds of the season have clearly been more active than we expected, with 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes, so far. The tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures warmed considerably during the summer and the patterns of stronger-than-normal wind shear, typically observed during emerging El Nino events, took longer to arrive than originally thought,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “However, the last couple of weeks have been fairly quiet; considering we are at, what has historically been, the most active time of year. Further, medium-range guidance does not indicate any strong signal for increased activity through the rest of September as an enhanced subtropical jet stream develops. Finally, the historical data suggest that tropical seasons often end rather abruptly as El Nino advances. In fact, no more than 3 named storms have developed after September 20 during the last four appearances of El Nino events. The weight of evidence suggests a slow finish to the season, and we are only expecting 3 more named storms and 1 hurricane during the remainder of the season.”
Energy traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include the first, official, winter forecast, will be issued on October 23. The first look at the 2013 tropical season will be released on December 26.
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, insurance, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.
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